RuntimeError: Error during optimization! using Quickstart sample code

[joarobles]

When I try to execute the Quickstart sample code I get the following error:

Stan Path: /workspaces/prophet/.venv/lib/python3.11/site-packages/prophet/stan_model/cmdstan-2.33.1
15:21:12 - cmdstanpy - INFO - Chain [1] start processing
15:21:12 - cmdstanpy - INFO - Chain [1] done processing
15:21:12 - cmdstanpy - ERROR - Chain [1] error: terminated by signal 11 Unknown error -11
Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton.
15:21:12 - cmdstanpy - INFO - Chain [1] start processing
15:21:12 - cmdstanpy - INFO - Chain [1] done processing
15:21:12 - cmdstanpy - ERROR - Chain [1] error: terminated by signal 11 Unknown error -11
Traceback (most recent call last):
  File "/workspaces/prophet/.venv/lib/python3.11/site-packages/prophet/models.py", line 121, in fit
    self.stan_fit = self.model.optimize(**args)
                    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
  File "/workspaces/prophet/.venv/lib/python3.11/site-packages/cmdstanpy/model.py", line 659, in optimize
    raise RuntimeError(msg)
RuntimeError: Error during optimization! Command '/workspaces/prophet/.venv/lib/python3.11/site-packages/prophet/stan_model/prophet_model.bin random seed=70637 data file=/tmp/tmp5e6qrx3k/tsthnvvx.json init=/tmp/tmp5e6qrx3k/p6pq0vgn.json output file=/tmp/tmp5e6qrx3k/prophet_modelfgk7tw4y/prophet_model-20250121152112.csv method=optimize algorithm=lbfgs iter=10000' failed: 

My code is the following:

import pandas as pd
from prophet import Prophet

df = pd.read_csv('https://raw.githubusercontent.com/facebook/prophet/main/examples/example_wp_log_peyton_manning.csv')
m = Prophet()

m.fit(df)

I'm using the following requirements:

prophet==1.1.6
pandas==2.1.4

And this is the devcontainer Dockerfile:

ARG VARIANT="3.11-bullseye"
FROM --platform=linux/amd64 mcr.microsoft.com/devcontainers/python:0-${VARIANT}

RUN apt-get update && apt-get install -y \
    build-essential \
    && rm -rf /var/lib/apt/lists/*

USER vscode

Any ideas?

[joarobles]

I can confirm this bug appears in prophet==1.1.5 and up.

Downgrading to prophet==1.1.4 seems to solve the issue, steps to reproduce:

Dockerfile

ARG VARIANT="3.11-slim"

FROM python:${VARIANT}

RUN apt-get update && apt-get install -y \
    build-essential \
    libssl-dev \
    pkg-config \
    gcc \
    g++ \
    make \
    cmake \
    && rm -rf /var/lib/apt/lists/*

# Install cmdstanpy version first
RUN pip install --no-cache-dir cmdstanpy==1.2.5

# Install cmdstan before
RUN python -c "import cmdstanpy; cmdstanpy.install_cmdstan()"

WORKDIR /usr/src/app

COPY requirements.txt ./
RUN pip install --no-cache-dir -r requirements.txt

COPY . .

CMD [ "python", "./main.py" ]

requirements.txt

prophet==1.1.4
pandas==2.1.4

main.py (example from Prophet's Quick Start)

# Python
import pandas as pd
import cmdstanpy
from prophet import Prophet

df = pd.read_csv('https://raw.githubusercontent.com/facebook/prophet/main/examples/example_wp_log_peyton_manning.csv')
m = Prophet()
m.fit(df)

If you change the prophet version in the requirements file to 1.1.5 or 1.1.6 you can reproduce the bug.