references.md

layout	title
page	References

This page contains all references used in the creation of this living literature review:

Alexander, P., Brown, C., Arneth, A., Finnigan, J., Moran, D., & Rounsevell, M. D. A. (2017). Losses, inefficiencies and waste in the global food system. Agricultural Systems, 153, 190–200. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2017.01.014

Allen, K., Reide, F., Gouramanis, C., Keenan, B., Stoffel, M., Hu, A., & Ionita, M. (2022). Coupled insights from palaeoenvironmental, historical and archaeological archives to support social-ecological resilience and the Sustainable Development Goals. Environmental Research Letters, 17. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6967

Arbesman, S. (2011). The Life-Spans of Empires. Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History, 44(3), 127–129. https://doi.org/10.1080/01615440.2011.577733

Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., & Lenton, T. M. (2022). Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points. Science, 377(6611), eabn7950. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950

Avin, S., Wintle, B. C., Weitzdörfer, J., Ó hÉigeartaigh, S. S., Sutherland, W. J., & Rees, M. J. (2018). Classifying global catastrophic risks. Futures, 102, 20–26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.02.001

Balaji, V., Couvreux, F., Deshayes, J., Gautrais, J., Hourdin, F., & Rio, C. (2022). Are general circulation models obsolete? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(47), e2202075119. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2202075119

Bardi, U. (2020). Before the Collapse: A Guide to the Other Side of Growth. Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-29038-2

Baum, S. D. (2023). Assessing natural global catastrophic risks. Natural Hazards, 115(3), 2699–2719. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05660-w

Baum, S. D., Denkenberger, D. C., Pearce, J. M., Robock, A., & Winkler, R. (2015). Resilience to global food supply catastrophes. Environment Systems and Decisions, 35(2), 301–313. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-015-9549-2

Beard, S., Cooke, N., Dryhurst, S., Cassidy, M., Gibbins, G., Gilgallon, G., Holt, B., Josefiina, I., Kemp, L., Tang, A., Weitzdörfer, J., Ingram, P., Sundaram, L., & Davies, R. (2023). Exploring Futures for the Science of Global Risk. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4405991

Beard, S. J., Rees, M., Richards, C., & Rios Rojas, C. (2023). The Era of Global Risk: An Introduction to Existential Risk Studies. Open Book Publishers. https://doi.org/10.11647/obp.0336

Berger, D., Soles, J. S., Giumlia-Mair, A. R., Brügmann, G., Galili, E., Lockhoff, N., & Pernicka, E. (2019). Isotope systematics and chemical composition of tin ingots from Mochlos (Crete) and other Late Bronze Age sites in the eastern Mediterranean Sea: An ultimate key to tin provenance? PLOS ONE, 14(6), e0218326. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0218326

Blanton, R. E., Feinman, G. M., Kowalewski, S. A., & Fargher, L. F. (2020). Moral Collapse and State Failure: A View From the Past. Frontiers in Political Science, 2. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpos.2020.568704

Blouin, S., Herwix, A., Rivers, M., Tieman, R. J., & Denkenberger, D. C. (2024). Assessing the Impact of Catastrophic Electricity Loss on the Food Supply Chain. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-024-00574-6

Boers, N., Ghil, M., & Stocker, T. F. (2022). Theoretical and paleoclimatic evidence for abrupt transitions in the Earth system. Environmental Research Letters, 17(9), 093006. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8944

Boyd, M., & Wilson, N. (2021). Anticipatory Governance for Preventing and Mitigating Catastrophic and Existential Risks. Policy Quarterly, 17(4), Article 4. https://doi.org/10.26686/pq.v17i4.7313

Boyd, M., & Wilson, N. (2023). Island refuges for surviving nuclear winter and other abrupt sunlight-reducing catastrophes. Risk Analysis, 43(9), 1824–1842. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.14072

Brozović, D. (2023). Societal collapse: A literature review. Futures, 145, 103075. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2022.103075

Büntgen, U., Arseneault, D., Boucher, É., Churakova (Sidorova), O. V., Gennaretti, F., Crivellaro, A., Hughes, M. K., Kirdyanov, A. V., Klippel, L., Krusic, P. J., Linderholm, H. W., Ljungqvist, F. C., Ludescher, J., McCormick, M., Myglan, V. S., Nicolussi, K., Piermattei, A., Oppenheimer, C., Reinig, F., … Esper, J. (2020). Prominent role of volcanism in Common Era climate variability and human history. Dendrochronologia, 64, 125757. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dendro.2020.125757

Burlingame, K. (2011). Forces of Destruction: The Collapse of the Mediterranean Bronze Age [Bachelor Thesis]. Pennsylvania State University.

Butzer, K. W. (2012). Collapse, environment, and society. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109(10), 3632–3639. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1114845109

Carlin, D. (2019). Chapter 3: The End of the World as They Knew It. In The end is always near: Apocalyptic moments, from the Bronze Age collapse to nuclear near misses (First edition). HarperCollins Publishers.

Carter, M. J. (2013). A Sociological Model of Societal Collapse. Comparative Sociology, 12(2), 236–254. https://doi.org/10.1163/15691330-12341262

Centeno, M. A., & Cohen, J. N. (2012). The Arc of Neoliberalism. Annual Review of Sociology, 38(Volume 38, 2012), 317–340. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-081309-150235

Cernev, T. (2022). Global catastrophic risk and planetary boundaries: The relationship to global targets and disaster risk reduction. https://www.undrr.org/publication/global-catastrophic-risk-and-planetary-boundaries-relationship-global-targets-and

Charalampopoulos, I., & Droulia, F. (2021). The Agro-Meteorological Caused Famines as an Evolutionary Factor in the Formation of Civilisation and History: Representative Cases in Europe. Climate, 9(1), Article 1. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9010005

Chrisendo, D., Niva, V., Hoffmann, R., Sayyar, S. M., Rocha, J., Sandström, V., Solt, F., & Kummu, M. (2024). Income inequality has increased for over two-thirds of the global population. Research Square. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5548291/v1

Clapp, J. (2023). Concentration and crises: Exploring the deep roots of vulnerability in the global industrial food system. The Journal of Peasant Studies, 50(1), 1–25. https://doi.org/10.1080/03066150.2022.2129013

Cohn, S. (2023). The Black Death: Collapse, resilience, transformation (M. Centeno, P. Callahan, P. Larcey, & T. Patterson, Eds.; pp. 192–206). Routledge. https://eprints.gla.ac.uk/292026/

Cottrell, R. S., Nash, K. L., Halpern, B. S., Remenyi, T. A., Corney, S. P., Fleming, A., Fulton, E. A., Hornborg, S., Johne, A., Watson, R. A., & Blanchard, J. L. (2019). Food production shocks across land and sea. Nature Sustainability, 2(2), Article 2. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-018-0210-1

Cotton-Barratt, O., Daniel, M., & Sandberg, A. (2020). Defence in Depth Against Human Extinction: Prevention, Response, Resilience, and Why They All Matter. Global Policy, 11(3), 271–282. https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.12786

Coupe, J., Bardeen, C. G., Robock, A., & Toon, O. B. (2019). Nuclear Winter Responses to Nuclear War Between the United States and Russia in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 4 and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124(15), 8522–8543. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030509

Cumming, G. S., & Peterson, G. D. (2017). Unifying Research on Social–Ecological Resilience and Collapse. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 32(9), 695–713. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2017.06.014

Dakos, V., Boulton, C. A., Buxton, J. E., Abrams, J. F., Armstrong McKay, D. I., Bathiany, S., Blaschke, L., Boers, N., Dylewsky, D., López-Martínez, C., Parry, I., Ritchie, P., van der Bolt, B., van der Laan, L., Weinans, E., & Kéfi, S. (2023). Tipping Point Detection and Early-Warnings in climate, ecological, and human systems. EGUsphere, 1–35. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1773

Degroot, D., Anchukaitis, K., Bauch, M., Burnham, J., Carnegy, F., Cui, J., de Luna, K., Guzowski, P., Hambrecht, G., Huhtamaa, H., Izdebski, A., Kleemann, K., Moesswilde, E., Neupane, N., Newfield, T., Pei, Q., Xoplaki, E., & Zappia, N. (2021). Towards a rigorous understanding of societal responses to climate change. Nature, 591(7851), Article 7851. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03190-2

Denkenberger, D., & Pearce, J. (2015). Feeding everyone no matter what: Managing food security after global catastrophe. Academic Press.

Diamond, J. M. (2011). Collapse: How societies choose to fail or survive. Penguin Books.

Do, T., Anderson, K., & Brorsen, B. W. (2010). The World’s wheat supply. Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Service.

D’Odorico, P., Carr, J. A., Laio, F., Ridolfi, L., & Vandoni, S. (2014). Feeding humanity through global food trade. Earth’s Future, 2(9), 458–469. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014EF000250

Drake, B. L. (2012). The influence of climatic change on the Late Bronze Age Collapse and the Greek Dark Ages. Journal of Archaeological Science, 39(6), 1862–1870. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jas.2012.01.029

D’Souza, A., Hoyt, K., Snyder, C. M., & Stapp, A. (2024). Can Operation Warp Speed Serve as a Model for Accelerating Innovations Beyond COVID Vaccines? (Working Paper No. 32831). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w32831

Easterlin, R. (2012). Life satisfaction of rich and poor under socialism and capitalism. International Journal of Happiness and Development, 1(1), 112–126.

Faulseit, R. K. (2016). Beyond Collapse: Archaeological Perspectives on Resilience, Revitalization, and Transformation in Complex Societies. SIU Press.

Frank, A. (2018). Light of the stars: Alien worlds and the fate of the Earth (First edition). W.W. Norton & Company, Inc.

Frank, A., Carroll-Nellenback, J., Alberti, M., & Kleidon, A. (2018). The Anthropocene Generalized: Evolution of Exo-Civilizations and Their Planetary Feedback. Astrobiology, 18(5), 503–518. https://doi.org/10.1089/ast.2017.1671

García Martínez, J. B., Behr, J., Pearce, J. M., & Denkenberger, D. (2024). Resilient foods for preventing global famine: A review of food supply interventions for global catastrophic food shocks including nuclear winter and infrastructure collapse. EarthArXiv. https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/7688/

Great Founder Theory. (2018, September 5). Samo Burja. https://samoburja.com/great-founder-theory/

Hamm, P., King, L. P., & Stuckler, D. (2012). Mass Privatization, State Capacity, and Economic Growth in Post-Communist Countries. American Sociological Review, 77(2), 295–324. https://doi.org/10.1177/0003122412441354

Hasell, J., & Roser, M. (2013). Famines. Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/famines

Herrington, G. (2021). Update to limits to growth: Comparing the World3 model with empirical data. Journal of Industrial Ecology, 25(3), 614–626. https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13084

Houska, T., Kraft, P., Chamorro-Chavez, A., & Breuer, L. (2015). SPOTting Model Parameters Using a Ready-Made Python Package. PLOS ONE, 10(12), e0145180. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0145180

Houska, T., Kraft, P., Jehn, F., Bestian, K., Kraus, D., & Breuer, L. (2021). Detection of hidden model errors by combining single and multi-criteria calibration. Science of The Total Environment, 777, 146218. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146218

Hoyer, D. (2022). Decline and Fall, Growth and Spread, or Resilience? Approaches to Studying How and Why Societies Change. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/43rgx

Hoyer, D., Bennett, J. S., Reddish, J., Holder, S., Howard, R., Benam, M., Levine, J., Ludlow, F., Feinman, G., & Turchin, P. (2023). Navigating polycrisis: Long-run socio-cultural factors shape response to changing climate. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 378(1889), 20220402. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2022.0402

Hoyer, D., Holder, S., Bennett, J. S., François, P., Whitehouse, H., Covey, A., Feinman, G., Korotayev, A., Vustiuzhanin, V., Preiser-Kapeller, J., Bard, K., Levine, J., Reddish, J., Orlandi, G., Ainsworth, R., & Turchin, P. (2024). All Crises are Unhappy in their Own Way: The role of societal instability in shaping the past. OSF. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/rk4gd

Hunt, T., & Lipo, C. (2012). Ecological Catastrophe and Collapse: The Myth of “Ecocide” on Rapa Nui (Easter Island) (SSRN Scholarly Paper No. 2042672). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2042672

Jagtap, S., Trollman, H., Trollman, F., Garcia-Garcia, G., Parra-López, C., Duong, L., Martindale, W., Munekata, P. E. S., Lorenzo, J. M., Hdaifeh, A., Hassoun, A., Salonitis, K., & Afy-Shararah, M. (2022). The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Its Implications for the Global Food Supply Chains. Foods, 11(14), 2098. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods11142098

Jehn, F. U., Gajewski, Ł. G., Hedlund, J., Arnscheidt, C. W., Xia, L., Wunderling, N., & Denkenberger, D. (2024). Food trade disruption after global catastrophes. EarthArXiv. https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/7339/

Ji, G., Zhong, H., Feukam Nzudie, H. L., Wang, P., & Tian, P. (2024). The structure, dynamics, and vulnerability of the global food trade network. Journal of Cleaner Production, 434, 140439. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.140439

Kang, H., Lee, K.-M., & Yang, J.-S. (2024). The potential for cascading failures in the international trade network. PLOS ONE, 19(3), e0299833. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0299833

Kanbur, R. (2019). Inequality in a global perspective. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 35(3), 431–444. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grz010

Kaniewski, D., & Van Campo, E. (2017). 3.2 ka BP Megadrought and the Late Bronze Age Collapse. In H. Weiss (Ed.), Megadrought and Collapse: From Early Agriculture to Angkor (p. 0). Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780199329199.003.0005

Kaniewski, D., Van Campo, E., Van Lerberghe, K., Boiy, T., Vansteenhuyse, K., Jans, G., Nys, K., Weiss, H., Morhange, C., Otto, T., & Bretschneider, J. (2011). The Sea Peoples, from Cuneiform Tablets to Carbon Dating. PLoS ONE, 6(6), e20232. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0020232

Kareiva, P., & Carranza, V. (2018). Existential risk due to ecosystem collapse: Nature strikes back. Futures, 102, 39–50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.01.001

Kemp, L. (2023). Diminishing Returns on Extraction: How Inequality and Extractive Hierarchy Create Fragility. In How Worlds Collapse. Routledge.

Kemp, L., Xu, C., Depledge, J., Ebi, K. L., Gibbins, G., Kohler, T. A., Rockström, J., Scheffer, M., Schellnhuber, H. J., Steffen, W., & Lenton, T. M. (2022). Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(34), e2108146119. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2108146119

Knitter, D., Günther, G., Hamer, W. B., Keßler, T., Seguin, J., Unkel, I., Weiberg, E., Duttmann, R., & Nakoinz, O. (2019). Land use patterns and climate change—A modeled scenario of the Late Bronze Age in Southern Greece. Environmental Research Letters, 14(12), 125003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab5126

Kraft, P., Vaché, K. B., Frede, H.-G., & Breuer, L. (2011). CMF: A Hydrological Programming Language Extension For Integrated Catchment Models. Environmental Modelling & Software, 26(6), 828–830. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.12.009

Kuhla, K., Puma, M., & Otto, C. (2023). Stabilizing international wheat prices through international cooperation after the Russian invasion of Ukraine [Preprint]. In Review. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3316541/v1

Lage, J., Thema, J., Zell-Ziegler, C., Best, B., Cordroch, L., & Wiese, F. (2023). Citizens call for sufficiency and regulation—A comparison of European citizen assemblies and National Energy and Climate Plans. Energy Research & Social Science, 104, 103254. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2023.103254

Laio, F., Ridolfi, L., & D’Odorico, P. (2016). The past and future of food stocks. Environmental Research Letters, 11(3), 035010. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/035010

Lawler, A. (2010). Collapse? What Collapse? Societal Change Revisited. Science, 330(6006), 907–909. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.330.6006.907

Lenton, T. M. (2023). Climate Change and Tipping Points in Historical Collapse. In How Worlds Collapse. Routledge.

Lenton, T. M., Held, H., Kriegler, E., Hall, J. W., Lucht, W., Rahmstorf, S., & Schellnhuber, H. J. (2008). Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 105(6), 1786–1793. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0705414105

Lenton, T. M., Rockström, J., Gaffney, O., Rahmstorf, S., Richardson, K., Steffen, W., & Schellnhuber, H. J. (2019). Climate tipping points—Too risky to bet against. Nature, 575(7784), Article 7784. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-019-03595-0

Lin, T.-H. (2015). Governing Natural Disasters: State Capacity, Democracy, and Human Vulnerability. Social Forces, 93(3), 1267–1300.

Linkov, I., Galaitsi, S. E., Trump, B. D., Pinigina, E., Rand, K., Cline, E. H., & Kitsak, M. (2024). Are civilizations destined to collapse? Lessons from the Mediterranean Bronze Age. Global Environmental Change, 84, 102792. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102792

Liu, H.-Y., Lauta, K. C., & Maas, M. M. (2018). Governing Boring Apocalypses: A new typology of existential vulnerabilities and exposures for existential risk research. Futures, 102, 6–19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.04.009

Ljungqvist, F. C., Seim, A., & Collet, D. (2023). Famines in medieval and early modern Europe—Connecting climate and society. WIREs Climate Change, n/a(n/a), e859. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.859

Loughlin, M. (2019). The Contemporary Crisis of Constitutional Democracy†. Oxford Journal of Legal Studies, 39(2), 435–454. https://doi.org/10.1093/ojls/gqz005

Maini, A. (2020). On Historical Dynamics by P. Turchin. Biophysical Economics and Sustainability, 5(1), 3. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41247-019-0063-x

Marchand, P., Carr, J. A., Dell’Angelo, J., Fader, M., Gephart, J. A., Kummu, M., Magliocca, N. R., Porkka, M., Puma, M. J., Ratajczak, Z., Rulli, M. C., Seekell, D. A., Suweis, S., Tavoni, A., & D’Odorico, P. (2016). Reserves and trade jointly determine exposure to food supply shocks. Environmental Research Letters, 11(9), 095009. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095009

Marienbach, M. (2024). Egalitarianism Without Catastrophe? Teotihuacan’s Challenge to Walter Scheidel’s Four Horsemen Theory. The Maastricht Journal of Liberal Arts, 15. https://doi.org/10.26481/mjla.2024.v15.1017

Marinatos, S. (1939). The Volcanic Destruction of Minoan Crete. Antiquity, 13(52), 425–439. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003598X00028088

Meadows, D. H., Club of Rome, & Potomac Associates (Eds.). (1974). The limits to growth: A report for the club of rome’s project on the predicament of mankind (2. ed). Universe books.

Middleton, G. D. (2017). Understanding Collapse: Ancient History and Modern Myths. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781316584941

Moersdorf, J., Rivers, M., Denkenberger, D., Breuer, L., & Jehn, F. U. (2024). The Fragile State of Industrial Agriculture: Estimating Crop Yield Reductions in a Global Catastrophic Infrastructure Loss Scenario. Global Challenges, 8(1), 2300206. https://doi.org/10.1002/gch2.202300206

Nakassis, D., Parkinson, W. A., & Galaty, M. L. (2011). Redistribution in Aegean Palatial Societies Redistributive Economies from a Theoretical and Cross-Cultural Perspective. American Journal of Archaeology, 115(2), 177–184. https://doi.org/10.3764/aja.115.2.177

Norrie, P. (2016). How Disease Affected the End of the Bronze Age. In P. Norrie (Ed.), A History of Disease in Ancient Times: More Lethal than War (pp. 61–101). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-28937-3_5

Nur, A., & Cline, E. H. (2000). Poseidon’s Horses: Plate Tectonics and Earthquake Storms in the Late Bronze Age Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean. Journal of Archaeological Science, 27(1), 43–63. https://doi.org/10.1006/jasc.1999.0431

Ó Gráda, C. (2009). Famine: A short history. Princeton University Press.

Omberg, R. T., & Tabarrok, A. (2022). Is it possible to prepare for a pandemic? Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 38(4), 851–875. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grac035

Ord, T. (2020). The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. Hachette Books, 480 pp.

Patterson, M. C., Peter Callahan, Paul Larcey, Thayer (Ed.). (2023). How Worlds Collapse: What History, Systems, and Complexity Can Teach Us About Our Modern World and Fragile Future. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003331384

Peregrine, P. N. (2018). Social Resilience to Climate-Related Disasters in Ancient Societies: A Test of Two Hypotheses. Weather, Climate, and Society, 10(1), 145–161. https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-17-0052.1

Peregrine, P. N. (2021). Social resilience to nuclear winter: Lessons from the Late Antique Little Ice Age. Global Security: Health, Science and Policy, 6(1), 57–67. https://doi.org/10.1080/23779497.2021.1963808

Petermann, Th., Bradke, H., Lüllmann, A., Poetzsch, M., & Riehm, U. (2011). Was bei einem Blackout geschieht: Folgen eines langandauernden und großräumigen Stromausfalls. edition sigma. https://doi.org/10.5445/IR/140085927

Puma, M. J., Bose, S., Chon, S. Y., & Cook, B. I. (2015). Assessing the evolving fragility of the global food system. Environmental Research Letters, 10(2), 024007. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/2/024007

Reiter, D. (2017). Is Democracy a Cause of Peace? In Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.287

Richards, C. E., Lupton, R. C., & Allwood, J. M. (2021). Re-framing the threat of global warming: An empirical causal loop diagram of climate change, food insecurity and societal collapse. Climatic Change, 164(3), 49. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-02957-w

Ripple, W. J., Wolf, C., Lenton, T. M., Gregg, J. W., Natali, S. M., Duffy, P. B., Rockström, J., & Schellnhuber, H. J. (2023). Many risky feedback loops amplify the need for climate action. One Earth, 6(2), 86–91. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2023.01.004

Riris, P., Silva, F., Crema, E., Palmisano, A., Robinson, E., Siegel, P. E., French, J. C., Jørgensen, E. K., Maezumi, S. Y., Solheim, S., Bates, J., Davies, B., Oh, Y., & Ren, X. (2024). Frequent disturbances enhanced the resilience of past human populations. Nature, 629(8013), 837–842. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07354-8

Ritchie, P. D. L., Clarke, J. J., Cox, P. M., & Huntingford, C. (2021). Overshooting tipping point thresholds in a changing climate. Nature, 592(7855), 517–523. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03263-2

Rockström, J., Gupta, J., Qin, D., Lade, S. J., Abrams, J. F., Andersen, L. S., Armstrong McKay, D. I., Bai, X., Bala, G., Bunn, S. E., Ciobanu, D., DeClerck, F., Ebi, K., Gifford, L., Gordon, C., Hasan, S., Kanie, N., Lenton, T. M., Loriani, S., … Zhang, X. (2023). Safe and just Earth system boundaries. Nature, 619(7968), 102–111. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06083-8

Rockström, J., Steffen, W., Noone, K., Persson, Å., Chapin, F. S. I., Lambin, E., Lenton, T., Scheffer, M., Folke, C., Schellnhuber, H. J., Nykvist, B., de Wit, C., Hughes, T., van der Leeuw, S., Rodhe, H., Sörlin, S., Snyder, P., Costanza, R., Svedin, U., … Foley, J. (2009). Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity. Ecology and Society, 14(2). https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-03180-140232

Roman, S. (2023). 2. Theories and Models: Understanding and Predicting Societal Collapse. 27–54. https://doi.org/10.11647/obp.0336.02

Roman, S., & Palmer, E. (2019). The Growth and Decline of the Western Roman Empire: Quantifying the Dynamics of Army Size, Territory, and Coinage. Cliodynamics, 10(2). https://doi.org/10.21237/C7clio10243683

Roser, M. (2014). Global deaths in conflict since the year 1400. Our World in Data. https://slides.ourworldindata.org/war-and-violence/#/6

Sandberg, A. (2023). The Lifespan of Civilizations: Do Societies “Age,” or Is Collapse Just Bad Luck? In How Worlds Collapse. Routledge.

Savitch, E., Frank, A., Carroll-Nellenback, J., Haqq-Misra, J., Kleidon, A., & Alberti, M. (2021). Triggering a Climate Change Dominated “Anthropocene”: Is It Common among Exocivilizations? The Astronomical Journal, 162(5), 196. https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-3881/ac1a71

Scheffer, M., van Nes, E. H., Kemp, L., Kohler, T. A., Lenton, T. M., & Xu, C. (2023). The vulnerability of aging states: A survival analysis across premodern societies. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120(48), e2218834120. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2218834120

Schippers, M. C., Ioannidis, J. P. A., & Luijks, M. W. J. (2024). Is society caught up in a Death Spiral? Modeling societal demise and its reversal. Frontiers in Sociology, 9. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsoc.2024.1194597

Schmidt, A. T., & Juijn, D. (2024). Economic inequality and the long-term future. Politics, Philosophy & Economics, 23(1), 67–99. https://doi.org/10.1177/1470594X231178502

Setty, S., Cramwinckel, M. J., van Nes, E. H., van de Leemput, I. A., Dijkstra, H. A., Lourens, L. J., Scheffer, M., & Sluijs, A. (2023). Loss of Earth system resilience during early Eocene transient global warming events. Science Advances, 9(14), eade5466. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.ade5466

Shepherd, T. G., Boyd, E., Calel, R. A., Chapman, S. C., Dessai, S., Dima-West, I. M., Fowler, H. J., James, R., Maraun, D., Martius, O., Senior, C. A., Sobel, A. H., Stainforth, D. A., Tett, S. F. B., Trenberth, K. E., van den Hurk, B. J. J. M., Watkins, N. W., Wilby, R. L., & Zenghelis, D. A. (2018). Storylines: An alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change. Climatic Change, 151(3), 555–571. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9

Sigl, M., Winstrup, M., McConnell, J. R., Welten, K. C., Plunkett, G., Ludlow, F., Büntgen, U., Caffee, M., Chellman, N., Dahl-Jensen, D., Fischer, H., Kipfstuhl, S., Kostick, C., Maselli, O. J., Mekhaldi, F., Mulvaney, R., Muscheler, R., Pasteris, D. R., Pilcher, J. R., … Woodruff, T. E. (2015). Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years. Nature, 523(7562), Article 7562. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14565

Søgaard Jørgensen, P., Jansen, R. E. V., Avila Ortega, D. I., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Donges, J. F., Österblom, H., Olsson, P., Nyström, M., Lade, S. J., Hahn, T., Folke, C., Peterson, G. D., & Crépin, A.-S. (2023). Evolution of the polycrisis: Anthropocene traps that challenge global sustainability. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 379(1893), 20220261. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2022.0261

Steffen, W., Rockström, J., Richardson, K., Lenton, T. M., Folke, C., Liverman, D., Summerhayes, C. P., Barnosky, A. D., Cornell, S. E., Crucifix, M., Donges, J. F., Fetzer, I., Lade, S. J., Scheffer, M., Winkelmann, R., & Schellnhuber, H. J. (2018). Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 115(33), Article 33.

Stoffel, M., Corona, C., Ludlow, F., Sigl, M., Huhtamaa, H., Garnier, E., Helama, S., Guillet, S., Crampsie, A., Kleemann, K., Camenisch, C., McConnell, J., & Gao, C. (2022). Climatic, weather, and socio-economic conditions corresponding to the mid-17th-century eruption cluster. Climate of the Past, 18(5), 1083–1108. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1083-2022

Supran, G., Rahmstorf, S., & Oreskes, N. (2023). Assessing ExxonMobil’s global warming projections. Science, 379(6628), eabk0063. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abk0063

Tainter, J. (1988). The Collapse of Complex Societies. Cambridge University Press.

Tainter, J. A. (2023). How Scholars Explain Collapse. In How Worlds Collapse. Routledge.

Tetlock, P., Lebow, R. N., & Parker, N. G. (2006). Chapter 1. Counterfactual Thought Experiments: Why we can’t live without and how we must learn to live with them. In Unmaking the West: “What-If?” Scenarios That Rewrite World History. University of Michigan Press.

Tomz, M. R., & Weeks, J. L. P. (2013). Public Opinion and the Democratic Peace. American Political Science Review, 107(4), 849–865. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055413000488

Treisman, D. (2020). Democracy by Mistake: How the Errors of Autocrats Trigger Transitions to Freer Government. American Political Science Review, 114(3), 792–810. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055420000180

Trotter, L., Knoben, W. J. M., Fowler, K. J. A., Saft, M., & Peel, M. C. (2022). Modular Assessment of Rainfall–Runoff Models Toolbox (MARRMoT) v2.1: An object-oriented implementation of 47 established hydrological models for improved speed and readability. Geoscientific Model Development, 15(16), 6359–6369. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6359-2022

Turchin, P., Currie, T. E., Whitehouse, H., François, P., Feeney, K., Mullins, D., Hoyer, D., Collins, C., Grohmann, S., Savage, P., Mendel-Gleason, G., Turner, E., Dupeyron, A., Cioni, E., Reddish, J., Levine, J., Jordan, G., Brandl, E., Williams, A., … Spencer, C. (2018). Quantitative historical analysis uncovers a single dimension of complexity that structures global variation in human social organization. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 115(2), E144–E151. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1708800115

Turchin, P., & Nefedov, S. A. (2009). Secular cycles. Princeton University Press.

Turchin, P., Whitehouse, H., Francois, P., Hoyer, D., Alves, A., Baines, J., Baker, D., Bartkowiak, M., Bates, J., Bennett, J., Bidmead, J., Bol, P., Ceccarelli, A., Christakis, K., Christian, D., Covey, A., De Angelis, F., Earle, T., Edwards, N., & Xie, L. (2019). An Introduction to Seshat: Global History Databank. Journal of Cognitive Historiography, 5. https://doi.org/10.1558/jch.39395

Turchin, P., Whitehouse, H., Larson, J., Cioni, E., Reddish, J., Hoyer, D., Savage, P. E., Covey, R. A., Baines, J., Altaweel, M., Anderson, E., Bol, P., Brandl, E., Carballo, D. M., Feinman, G., Korotayev, A., Kradin, N., Levine, J. D., Nugent, S. E., … François, P. (2023). Explaining the rise of moralizing religions: A test of competing hypotheses using the Seshat Databank. Religion, Brain & Behavior, 13(2), 167–194. https://doi.org/10.1080/2153599X.2022.2065345

Varberg, J., Kaul, F., & Gratuze, B. (2020). Bronze Age Glass and Amber Evidence of Bronze Age long distance exchange. Adoranten, 2019, 5–29.

Vodovnik, Ž. (2024). Possibilities at the End of the World: (Re)Imagining Care as Politics. Teorija in praksa, 387–405. https://doi.org/10.51936/tip.61.2.387

Wand, T., & Hoyer, D. (2024). The characteristic time scale of cultural evolution. PNAS Nexus, 3(2), pgae009. https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae009

Wang, S., Foster, A., Lenz, E. A., Kessler, J. D., Stroeve, J. C., Anderson, L. O., Turetsky, M., Betts, R., Zou, S., Liu, W., Boos, W. R., & Hausfather, Z. (2023). Mechanisms and Impacts of Earth System Tipping Elements. Reviews of Geophysics, 61(1), e2021RG000757. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021RG000757

Wang, X., Ma, L., Yan, S., Chen, X., & Growe, A. (2023). Trade for Food Security: The Stability of Global Agricultural Trade Networks. Foods, 12, 271. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods12020271

Weiss, H. (1982). The decline of Late Bronze Age civilization as a possible response to climatic change. Climatic Change, 4(2), 173–198.

Wellesley, L., Preston, F., Lehne, J., & Bailey, R. (2017). Chokepoints in global food trade: Assessing the risk. Research in Transportation Business & Management, 25, 15–28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rtbm.2017.07.007

Wilson, N., Valler, V., Cassidy, M., Boyd, M., Mani, L., & Brönnimann, S. (2023). Impact of the Tambora volcanic eruption of 1815 on islands and relevance to future sunlight-blocking catastrophes. Scientific Reports, 13(1), Article 1. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-30729-2

Woo, G. (2019). Downward Counterfactual Search for Extreme Events. Frontiers in Earth Science, 7. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00340

Wunderling, N., Donges, J. F., Kurths, J., & Winkelmann, R. (2021). Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming. Earth System Dynamics, 12(2), 601–619. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021

Wunderling, N., Winkelmann, R., Rockström, J., Loriani, S., Armstrong McKay, D. I., Ritchie, P. D. L., Sakschewski, B., & Donges, J. F. (2023). Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model. Nature Climate Change, 13(1), Article 1. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01545-9

Xia, L., Robock, A., Scherrer, K., Harrison, C. S., Bodirsky, B. L., Weindl, I., Jägermeyr, J., Bardeen, C. G., Toon, O. B., & Heneghan, R. (2022). Global food insecurity and famine from reduced crop, marine fishery and livestock production due to climate disruption from nuclear war soot injection. Nature Food, 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-022-00573-0

Yıldırım, C., & Önen, H. G. (2024). Vulnerabilities of the neoliberal global food system: The Russia–Ukraine War and COVID-19. Journal of Agrarian Change, n/a(n/a), e12601. https://doi.org/10.1111/joac.12601

Yurko, F. J. (1999). End of the Late Bronze Age and other crisis periods: A volcanic cause? In E. F. Wente, E. Teeter, & J. A. Larson (Eds.), Gold of praise: Studies on ancient Egypt in honor of Edward F. Wente. Oriental Institute of the University of Chicago.

Zeder, M. A. (2011). The Origins of Agriculture in the Near East. Current Anthropology, 52(S4), S221–S235. https://doi.org/10.1086/659307

Zhang, D. D., Lee, H. F., Wang, C., Li, B., Pei, Q., Zhang, J., & An, Y. (2011). The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108(42), 17296–17301. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1104268108