diff --git a/openskill/rate.py b/openskill/rate.py index 11a0b98..c5d1cde 100644 --- a/openskill/rate.py +++ b/openskill/rate.py @@ -200,9 +200,10 @@ def predict_win(teams: List[List[Rating]], **options) -> List[Union[int, float]] raise ValueError(f"Expected at least two teams.") n = len(teams) + denom = (n * (n - 1)) / 2 pairwise_probabilities = [] - for pairwise_subset in itertools.permutations(teams, len(teams)): + for pairwise_subset in itertools.permutations(teams, 2): current_team_a_rating = team_rating([pairwise_subset[0]]) current_team_b_rating = team_rating([pairwise_subset[1]]) mu_a = current_team_a_rating[0][0] @@ -216,22 +217,12 @@ def predict_win(teams: List[List[Rating]], **options) -> List[Union[int, float]] ) ) - if n > 2: - cache = deque(pairwise_probabilities) - probabilities = [] - partial = len(pairwise_probabilities) / n - while len(cache) > 0: - aggregate = [] - for length in range(int(partial)): - aggregate.append(cache.popleft()) - aggregate_sum = sum(aggregate) - aggregate_multiple = n - for length in range(1, n - 2): - aggregate_multiple *= n - length - probabilities.append(aggregate_sum / aggregate_multiple) - return probabilities - else: - return pairwise_probabilities + return [ + (sum(team_prob) / denom) + for team_prob in itertools.zip_longest( + *[iter(pairwise_probabilities)] * (n - 1) + ) + ] def predict_draw(teams: List[List[Rating]], **options) -> Union[int, float]: @@ -255,7 +246,7 @@ def predict_draw(teams: List[List[Rating]], **options) -> Union[int, float]: ) pairwise_probabilities = [] - for pairwise_subset in itertools.permutations(teams, len(teams)): + for pairwise_subset in itertools.permutations(teams, 2): current_team_a_rating = team_rating([pairwise_subset[0]]) current_team_b_rating = team_rating([pairwise_subset[1]]) mu_a = current_team_a_rating[0][0] @@ -273,10 +264,8 @@ def predict_draw(teams: List[List[Rating]], **options) -> Union[int, float]: ) ) + denom = 1 if n > 2: - aggregate_multiple = n - for length in range(1, n): - aggregate_multiple *= n - length - return abs(sum(pairwise_probabilities)) / aggregate_multiple - else: - return abs(sum(pairwise_probabilities)) + denom = n * (n - 1) + + return abs(sum(pairwise_probabilities)) / denom diff --git a/poetry.lock b/poetry.lock index 1ac14e4..85408c8 100644 --- a/poetry.lock +++ b/poetry.lock @@ -170,7 +170,7 @@ python-versions = ">=2.7, !=3.0.*, !=3.1.*, !=3.2.*, !=3.3.*, !=3.4.*" [[package]] name = "coverage" -version = "6.3.1" +version = "6.3.2" description = "Code coverage measurement for Python" category = "dev" optional = false @@ -240,7 +240,7 @@ python-versions = ">=2.7, !=3.0.*, !=3.1.*, !=3.2.*, !=3.3.*" [[package]] name = "importlib-metadata" -version = "4.11.1" +version = "4.11.2" description = "Read metadata from Python packages" category = "dev" optional = false @@ -250,7 +250,7 @@ python-versions = ">=3.7" zipp = ">=0.5" [package.extras] -docs = ["sphinx", "jaraco.packaging (>=8.2)", "rst.linker (>=1.9)"] +docs = ["sphinx", "jaraco.packaging (>=9)", "rst.linker (>=1.9)"] perf = ["ipython"] testing = ["pytest (>=6)", "pytest-checkdocs (>=2.4)", "pytest-flake8", "pytest-cov", "pytest-enabler (>=1.0.1)", "packaging", "pyfakefs", "flufl.flake8", "pytest-perf (>=0.9.2)", "pytest-black (>=0.3.7)", "pytest-mypy (>=0.9.1)", "importlib-resources (>=1.3)"] @@ -368,7 +368,7 @@ python-versions = "*" [[package]] name = "numpy" -version = "1.22.2" +version = "1.22.3" description = "NumPy is the fundamental package for array computing with Python." category = "main" optional = false @@ -555,7 +555,7 @@ python-versions = "*" [[package]] name = "readme-renderer" -version = "32.0" +version = "33.0" description = "readme_renderer is a library for rendering \"readme\" descriptions for Warehouse" category = "dev" optional = false @@ -567,7 +567,7 @@ docutils = ">=0.13.1" Pygments = ">=2.5.1" [package.extras] -md = ["cmarkgfm (>=0.5.0,<0.7.0)"] +md = ["cmarkgfm (>=0.8.0)"] [[package]] name = "requests" @@ -814,7 +814,7 @@ dev 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trueskill = [ {file = "trueskill-0.4.5.tar.gz", hash = "sha256:9d62b48d2428369d712bd9becff9f9a2caa325e1a2ab5f9392d34bff757867bb"}, @@ -1447,6 +1455,10 @@ twine = [ {file = "twine-3.8.0-py3-none-any.whl", hash = "sha256:d0550fca9dc19f3d5e8eadfce0c227294df0a2a951251a4385797c8a6198b7c8"}, {file = "twine-3.8.0.tar.gz", hash = "sha256:8efa52658e0ae770686a13b675569328f1fba9837e5de1867bfe5f46a9aefe19"}, ] +typing-extensions = [ + {file = "typing_extensions-4.1.1-py3-none-any.whl", hash = "sha256:21c85e0fe4b9a155d0799430b0ad741cdce7e359660ccbd8b530613e8df88ce2"}, + {file = "typing_extensions-4.1.1.tar.gz", hash = "sha256:1a9462dcc3347a79b1f1c0271fbe79e844580bb598bafa1ed208b94da3cdcd42"}, +] urllib3 = [ {file = "urllib3-1.26.8-py2.py3-none-any.whl", hash = "sha256:000ca7f471a233c2251c6c7023ee85305721bfdf18621ebff4fd17a8653427ed"}, {file = "urllib3-1.26.8.tar.gz", hash = "sha256:0e7c33d9a63e7ddfcb86780aac87befc2fbddf46c58dbb487e0855f7ceec283c"}, diff --git a/pyproject.toml b/pyproject.toml index 47cfa2d..37d58fb 100644 --- a/pyproject.toml +++ b/pyproject.toml @@ -58,6 +58,7 @@ prompt-toolkit = "^3.0.28" trueskill = "^0.4.5" towncrier = "^21.9.0" scikit-learn = "^1.0.2" +typing-extensions = "^4.1.1" pandas = "^1.4.1" [tool.poetry.extras] diff --git a/tests/predictions/test_predict_win.py b/tests/predictions/test_predict_win.py index af82622..63869b9 100644 --- a/tests/predictions/test_predict_win.py +++ b/tests/predictions/test_predict_win.py @@ -21,3 +21,80 @@ def test_predict_win(): with pytest.raises(ValueError): predict_win(teams=[team_1]) + + +def test_predict_win_1v1(): + a1 = Rating() + a2 = Rating(mu=32.444, sigma=5.123) + b1 = Rating(mu=73.381, sigma=1.421) + b2 = Rating(mu=25.188, sigma=6.211) + team1 = [a1, a2] + team2 = [b1, b2] + + prob1, prob2 = predict_win(teams=[team1, team2]) + assert prob1 == pytest.approx(0.34641823958165474) + assert prob2 == pytest.approx(0.6535817604183453) + + +def test_predict_win_asymmetric(): + a1 = Rating() + a2 = Rating(mu=32.444, sigma=5.123) + b1 = Rating(mu=73.381, sigma=1.421) + b2 = Rating(mu=25.188, sigma=6.211) + team1 = [a1, a2] + team2 = [b1, b2] + prob1, prob2, prob3, prob4 = predict_win(teams=[team1, team2, [a2], [b2]]) + assert prob1 == pytest.approx(0.2613515941642222) + assert prob2 == pytest.approx(0.41117430943389155) + assert prob3 == pytest.approx(0.1750905983112395) + assert prob4 == pytest.approx(0.15238349809064686) + + +def test_predict_win_3p_ffa(): + a1 = Rating() + prob1, prob2, prob3 = predict_win(teams=[[a1], [a1], [a1]]) + assert prob1 == pytest.approx(0.333333333333) + assert prob2 == pytest.approx(0.333333333333) + assert prob3 == pytest.approx(0.333333333333) + + +def test_predict_win_4p_ffa(): + a1 = Rating() + p1, p2, p3, p4 = predict_win(teams=[[a1], [a1], [a1], [a1]]) + assert p1 == pytest.approx(0.25) + assert p2 == pytest.approx(0.25) + assert p3 == pytest.approx(0.25) + assert p4 == pytest.approx(0.25) + + +def test_predict_win_4p_varying_skill(): + r1 = Rating(mu=1, sigma=0.1) + r2 = Rating(mu=2, sigma=0.1) + r3 = Rating(mu=3, sigma=0.1) + r4 = Rating(mu=4, sigma=0.1) + p1, p2, p3, p4 = predict_win(teams=[[r1], [r2], [r3], [r4]]) + assert p1 == pytest.approx(0.2028051110543726) + assert p2 == pytest.approx(0.23419421333676907) + assert p3 == pytest.approx(0.2658057866632309) + assert p4 == pytest.approx(0.29719488894562746) + + +def test_predict_win_5p_ffa(): + a1 = Rating() + p1, p2, p3, p4, p5 = predict_win(teams=[[a1], [a1], [a1], [a1], [a1]]) + assert p1 == pytest.approx(0.2) + assert p2 == pytest.approx(0.2) + assert p3 == pytest.approx(0.2) + assert p4 == pytest.approx(0.2) + assert p5 == pytest.approx(0.2) + + +def test_predict_5p_impostor(): + a1 = Rating() + a2 = Rating(mu=32.444, sigma=5.123) + p1, p2, p3, p4, p5 = predict_win(teams=[[a1], [a1], [a1], [a2], [a1]]) + assert p1 == pytest.approx(0.196037416522638) + assert p2 == pytest.approx(0.196037416522638) + assert p3 == pytest.approx(0.196037416522638) + assert p4 == pytest.approx(0.21585034503812) + assert p5 == pytest.approx(0.196037416522638)