Ethereum Will Die From Suicide

_posts/2024-10-14-ethereum-will-die-from-suicide.md

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+---
+layout: post
+title: "Ethereum Will Die From Suicide"
+date: 2024-10-14 09:00 +0000
+comments: true
+categories: [ethereum]
+---
+
+History suggests that even the most resilient ecosystems can face decline from within. Arnold Toynbee examined the lifecycle of civilisations and concluded, "Civilisations die from suicide, not by murder". This applies just as much to modern technological ecosystems like Ethereum.
+
+## Ethereum's Rise and Challenge
+
+Like civilisations born from adversity, Ethereum emerged as a response to Bitcoin's limitations. By introducing smart contracts, Ethereum created an open platform for developers to build dApps, propelling itself to the forefront of blockchain technology. This innovation attracted a vibrant community of developers, users, and enthusiasts.
+
+In Toynbee's terms, Ethereum's "creative minority" rose to meet the challenge of blockchain's expanding potential. Ethereum thrived by solving problems and continually innovating to meet growing demands. However, like any civilisation, the path forward is fraught with new challenges.
+
+## The "Creative Minority" and its Decline
+
+According to Toynbee, civilisations thrive when their creative minority effectively addresses challenges and leads by example. However, this group often transforms into a "dominant minority," more focused on preserving its power than solving problems.
+
+As Ethereum faces scaling challenges, high gas fees, and slow transaction times, frustrations among users have grown. Critics question whether the Ethereum developers are innovating quickly enough to meet the community's needs. If Ethereum's "creative minority" fails to address these challenges, it risks becoming out of touch with its broader user base, just as Toynbee observed with declining civilisations.
+
+## Fragmentation Within the Community
+
+Toynbee also noted that civilisations collapse when there is a breakdown between the ruling class and the masses. Similarly, a disconnect is emerging between Ethereum's core developers and its broader community of users and validators. Ethereum's reliance on Layer 2 solutions to address scalability has created friction and fragmentation for users and liquidity. While these solutions offer efficiency, some see them as a workaround rather than a core innovation. Additionally, competing blockchains like Solana are positioning themselves as cheaper and faster alternatives, drawing users away from Ethereum.
+
+These rival blockchains resemble Toynbee's "proletariat" revolting against an increasingly isolated ruling class. Ethereum's dominance in the decentralised space is now under threat as competitors offer practical alternatives.
+
+## The Universal State and Ethereum
+
+In Toynbee's analysis, declining civilisations often form a "universal state," where power becomes centralised in the hands of a dominant few, stifling creativity and innovation. Ethereum may be showing signs of this dynamic, with an increasing concentration of decision making power in the hands of a small group of "all core developers".
+
+While Ethereum is theoretically decentralised, all core devs often drives crucial decisions about hard forks, upgrades, and protocol changes. This centralisation could limit broader community participation, mirroring how Toynbee's "dominant minority" alienated the masses. If Ethereum's development continues to be driven primarily from the top down, it risks entering a period of stagnation.
+
+## The Universal Church and L2s
+
+Toynbee's concept of the "universal church" provides another lens through which to examine Ethereum's current state. When civilisations fragment, people often seek alternatives to traditional power structures. In Ethereum's case, Layer 2 solutions could be seen as a "universal church," offering a parallel structure to address the shortcomings of the main network.
+
+Layer 2s provide faster, cheaper transactions while still relying on Ethereum's security. They offer a refuge for users frustrated by Ethereum's high fees and slow speeds, much like the universal church offered spiritual solace outside the faltering state. However, just as Toynbee observed with the rise of the universal church, the emergence of Layer 2s could signal Ethereum's core system is entering a period of decline if it cannot integrate these parallel innovations effectively.
+
+## Inevitable Decline?
+
+While history suggests internal struggles often lead to decline, Ethereum's future is not set in stone. The rise of Layer 2 solutions and the platform's vibrant developer community offer hope for overcoming current challenges. Rather than seeing Ethereum's issues as signs of inevitable collapse, they could serve as catalysts for the next growth phase.
+
+To ensure its survival and continued relevance, Ethereum must attract young blood, foster a culture of decentralised innovation, and ensure that its "creative minority" remains engaged in solving the network's biggest problems. 
+
+### References
+
+This [thread](https://x.com/thinkingwest/status/1835027511022846172) inspired the post. It also draws from personal reflections on broader societal theories, such as the "fourth turning".
+
+[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Study_of_History](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Study_of_History)  
+[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss–Howe_generational_theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss–Howe_generational_theory)  
+[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundation_(Asimov_novel)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundation_(Asimov_novel))
+
+
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