This repository contains my presentation from the AGU 2018 Fall meeting, as well as all code necessary to reproduce the presented results.
The repository is structured in the following way:
- code Contains the Python code to reproduce all results and figures
- MODIS Contains a R script to download and preprocess MODIS data of snow-cover-fraction and evapotranspiration for each basin.
- Kratzert_et_al_AGU18_slides.pdf The slides presented at the AGU 2018 Fall meeting.
- Kratzert_et_al_AGU18_abstract.pdf The abstract of our study. The abstract can also be seen at the bottom
Frederik Kratzert¹, Mathew Herrnegger², Daniel Klotz¹, Sepp Hochreiter¹, Günter Klambauer¹
- ¹: LIT AI Lab & Institute for Machine Learning, Johannes Kepler University, Linz, Austria
- ²: Institute for Hydrology and Water Management, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria
In recent years, neural networks gained a new wave of popularity in many application domains, such as computer vision or natural language processing. However in applied environmental sciences, like rainfall-runoff modelling in hydrology, neural networks tend to have a rather bad reputation. This can be attributed to their black-box-ness and the difficulty or impossibility to understand network internals leading to a prediction.
In this study, we tackle this criticism and show how recent advances and methods in the area of interpretable machine learning allow for deeper analysis of network internals. As an example we use the Long Short-Term Memory network (LSTM) for the task of rainfall-runoff modelling. LSTMs are a special kind of recurrent neural network architecture and, as the name suggests, are able to learn short- and long-term dependencies between inputs and outputs due to special memory cells. This property is especially appreciable in hydrology, where outputs of the system tend to have a long memory. Kratzert et al. (2018) confirm this and have recently shown that LSTMs can achieve competitive results compared to the well established Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model, coupled with the Snow-17 snow module.
In this contribution, we explore the internals of trained networks for different basins from the publicly available CAMELS data set, also utilizing remote sensing data of soil moisture, snow cover and evapotranspiration fluxes. We show that LSTMs internally learn to represent patterns that match our understandings of the hydrological system. In snow-driven catchments e.g. the network develops special memory cells that mimic conceptual snow storages with annual dynamics, as known from process-based catchment models.
In general, we anticipate that our findings can increase the trust in the application of neural networks in environmental sciences. We however stress, that expert knowledge on the modeled system is inevitable and still remains an important quality against black-box-ness.
References:
Kratzert, F., Klotz, D., Brenner, C., Schulz, K., and Herrnegger, M.: Rainfall–runoff modelling using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6005-6022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6005-2018, 2018.